/ Opening

How Big Is It, Really?

Market-size numbers look objective. Most are models built from assumptions.

CONNECTICUT DOG GROOMING$ ?Annual market size

TAKEAWAYA useful estimate shows its assumptions instead of hiding behind a precise number.

/ Estimate

Estimate the annual Connecticut dog-grooming market

You have 60 seconds. Use any reasonable assumptions, but write the math.

HOUSEHOLDS×% WITH DOGS×% USING GROOMERS×VISITS / YEAR×SPEND / VISIT

TAKEAWAYThe purpose is not the exact answer. It is the logic behind the answer.

/ Reveal

Different estimates usually come from different assumptions

The calculation may be correct while the model is wrong.

Dog ownership35%–55%

Uses professional grooming20%–60%

Visits per year2–8

Spend per visit$45–$110

TAKEAWAYThe largest uncertainty deserves the most attention.

/ The Basics

TAM, SAM, and SOM are not three versions of the same number

Each narrows the opportunity using a different constraint.

TAMTotal demand if every relevant buyer could be served

SAMThe part your offering and footprint can actually serve

SOMThe share you could realistically win in a defined period

TAKEAWAYA large TAM does not prove that a company can reach or win the market.

/ Growth Math

Three percentage mistakes to stop making

Small language errors create large strategic errors.

SHARE CHANGE

10% → 12%

Up 2 percentage points; up 20% relative.

CATEGORY VS COMPANY

Company +10%
Category +15%

The company grew and lost share.

COMPOUNDING

10% for 3 years

Not 30% exactly; each year grows from the new base.

TAKEAWAYGrowth is meaningful only relative to the starting base, category, and time period.

/ Team Challenge

Size the market with transparent assumptions

Estimate the annual Connecticut dog-grooming market and define a realistic first-year SOM for a new two-location operator.

CT households1.4M

Choose dog ownership35%–55%

Choose groomer usage20%–60%

Choose frequency2–8 / year

Choose spend$45–$110

Capacity30 appointments / day / location

TAKEAWAYShow TAM, SAM, SOM—and the assumption that matters most.

/ Pressure Test

A market estimate is a decision tool, not a decoration

The best model shows what must be true for the opportunity to exist.

1.Which assumption has the widest credible range?

2.What evidence would narrow that range?

3.What service, geography, or capacity constraint shrinks SAM?

4.What would make the proposed SOM unrealistic?

TAKEAWAYA market number is stronger when its uncertainty and constraints are visible.

/ Example

One defensible estimate—not the answer

Reasonable people can choose different assumptions. The chain is what makes the estimate useful.

TAM$520M

1.4M households × 45% dogs × 45% professional grooming × 5 visits × $75

SAM$31M

Estimated spend within the two-location service radius.

YEAR-1 SOM$1.1M

Capacity-based: 60 appointments/day × 250 days × $75.

TAKEAWAYCapacity can provide a more credible SOM than an arbitrary market-share percentage.

/ Close

Opportunity, reach, reality

Do not let a large market number erase the constraints that determine whether the company can win.

TAMHow much demand could exist?

SAMWhat can we actually serve?

SOMWhat can we realistically win now?

TAKEAWAYMarket size is a model. Market share is a position. Growth is a change over time.